Просмотр архива за суббота, 15 марта 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2014 Mar 15 1259 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Mar 2014	143	005
16 Mar 2014	143	007
17 Mar 2014	145	007

Bulletin

There were five C flares on the Sun during the past 24 hours, released by NOAA AR 12003 and 12002. The brightest flare was a C5.0 flare produced by NOAA AR 12003 peaking at 09:40 UT on March 15. In the next 48 hours, the probability for C flares is high (90%) and for M flares around 35%, mainly from NOAA AR 12003 and 12002. In the past 24 hours, solar wind speed as observed by ACE decreased from about 450 km/s to about 400 km/s, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) dropped from about 8.5 to 4.5 nT. The effects of the coronal hole high speed stream have subsided. In the past 24 hours, quiet geomagnetic levels were registered (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2). Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on March 15 and 16. Quiet to active conditions (K Dourbes < 5) are possible on March 17, due to a coronal hole high speed stream.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 078, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Mar 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	144
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	077 - Based on 32 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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