Просмотр архива за суббота, 10 января 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2015 Jan 10 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Jan 2015	155	007
11 Jan 2015	159	007
12 Jan 2015	163	013

Bulletin

Solar activity was low with only some low level C flaring from Catania regions 50 and 57 (NOAA regions 2257 and 2259). The strongest event was a C3.4 flare from Catania region 50 (NOAA 2257) peaking at 11:33UT. Catania region 50 (NOAA 2257) developed a delta in its trailer part. After midnight UT some new regions also appeared to emerge near N0W10 and near S7E5. The newly emerged region reported yesterday, Catania 50 received NOAA numbering 2260. And a new region (NOAA 2261) turned onto the disc in the southern hemisphere. Flaring at C level is expected to continue with a chance for M flaring. With potential strong flaring from Catania region 50 (NOAA 2257) located on the western hemisphere there is also a possibility for a proton event. No significant Earth directed CME's were reported. Solar wind speed continued to decline steadily over the period from values around 470 km/s to minima below 380 km/s. It is currently fluctuating around 420 km/s. Total magnetic field was relatively stable around 5nT at the start of the period but later increased to current values between 7 and 8 nT. Bz was fluctuating with negative peaks down to -6nT. Magnetic field Phi angle was positive throughout the period. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 2-3, local K Dourbes 1-2). Solar wind conditions are expected to be mostly nominal in the coming days. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 085, based on 03 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Jan 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	151
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	082 - Based on 08 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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