Просмотр архива за воскресенье, 11 января 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2015 Jan 11 1238 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Jan 2015	156	007
12 Jan 2015	160	007
13 Jan 2015	165	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was low with only low level C flaring. The strongest flare came from Catania region 49 (NOAA 2253) peaking at 5:43 UT at C4,2 level. Catania region 50 (NOAA 2257) produced 2 long duration C3 flares. A C3.4 flare peaking at 9:42 UT and a C3.3 flare peaking at 2:53 UT. The region emerging yesterday at the solar equator was numbered as NOAA 2262. New sunspot emergence was observed southeast of Catania 51 (NOAA 2255). Flaring at C level is expected to continue, with a chance for an M level flare. We await further coronagraph data for assessment a possible CME's associated with the long duration C3 flares. Solar wind speed increased steadily over the period from around 425 km/s to over 500 km/s with also a period of higher velocities up to 620 km/s. Total magnetic field was in the 7 to 10 nT range, and presently around 8 nT. Bz was variable within the +/-8 nT range. The magnetic field Phi angle was positive during the period. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 0-3). Solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced and geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled with some active periods possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 089, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Jan 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	152
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	088 - Based on 11 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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