Просмотр архива за понедельник, 9 марта 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2015 Mar 09 1240 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
09 Mar 2015	123	015
10 Mar 2015	122	021
11 Mar 2015	120	016

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours there were several C class flares, all were produced by NOAA AR (Active Region) 2297, which is located at S15E45, and is classified as a Beta-Gamma-Delta region under the Mount Wilson magnetic classification system. The largest flare recorded over the past 24 hours was a C4.0 flare produced at 10:02UT on 2015-Mar-09. Despite its activity, AR 2297 has appeared stable with small amounts of flux emergence. There is a large filament located between S05W45 and S30E90, however this has remained, and appears, stable. AR 2297 produced a CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) on 2015-Mar-07 at 22:24UT, continual flows can be seen emanating from AR 2297 following the CME. Flaring is expected to continue at the C-class level with a possibility of M-class flares. There were no Earth directed CMEs in the past 24 hours. Proton numbers have been constant over the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed has been slowly decreasing over the past 24 hours from 600 km/s to 420 km/s. The total magnetic field has been stable around 5 nT, and the Bz component has fluctuated from positive to negative. The Bz has ranged between +5 and -5 nT over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 1-4 (NOAA) and local K index 2-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. A small transient coronal hole is currently centered at E10, this may produce enhanced solar wind speeds in a couple of days. AR 2297 produced a CME on 2015-Mar-07 at 22:24UT, this may interact with the Earth on 2015-Mar-10.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 018, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 08 Mar 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	124
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	022 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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