Просмотр архива за понедельник, 2 ноября 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2015 Nov 02 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Severe magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Nov 2015	133	015
03 Nov 2015	135	071
04 Nov 2015	137	035

Bulletin

Thirteen C-class flares were recorded during the last 24 hours. NOAA 2443 was the source of all 7 flares during the first half of the period, with the strongest event a long-duration C6.4 peaking at 23:14UT. A coronal mass ejection (CME) was associated with this event and first observed by CACTus around 23:36UT. Based on current coronagraphic imagery, this CME seems not to have an earth-directed component. Quickly developing NOAA 2445 in the northwest quadrant then took over and produced the other 6 C-class flares, the strongest being a C7.2 flare peaking at 10:00UT. No earth-directed CMEs have been observed. Another potentially active region is about 2 days behind the northeast limb.

C-class flares are expected, with a good chance on an M-class flare from active regions NOAA 2443 and NOAA 2445.

A sector boundary crossing was observed around 18:30UT (01 November), with the direction of the interplanetary magnetic field turning from towards to away from the Sun. Solar wind speed was close to 350 km/s for the entire period, with Bz varying between -6 and +4 nT. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed, with a single active episode around 21:00UT in Dourbes. The arrival of the high speed stream (HSS) of a positive equatorial coronal hole (CH) is expected for later today or tomorrow. This CH is somewhat smaller than during its previous transit, so its speed and geomagnetic effects may be less intense this time.

Minor to severe geomagnetic storming (K ranging from 5 to 7) is expected in response to the arrival of the HSS of the equatorial CH.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 113, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Nov 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	124
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	088 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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