Просмотр архива за вторник, 3 ноября 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2015 Nov 03 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Severe magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Nov 2015	118	067
04 Nov 2015	118	050
05 Nov 2015	118	026

Bulletin

Only 4 C-class flares were recorded during the period as flaring activity from NOAA 2443 and NOAA 2445 stalled. The strongest event was a C5.0 flare peaking at 15:00UT, with contributions from both NOAA 2443 (eruption group filament) and NOAA 2445. Magnetically, NOAA 2445 has simplified a bit, but NOAA 2443 retained its delta structure in the middle portion. No other sunspot groups are currently visible.

C-class flares are expected, with a good chance on an isolated M-class flare from active regions NOAA 2443 and NOAA 2445.

The coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraphic imagery near the west limb around 20:36UT (west-southwest) and around 01:30UT (northwest) are related to resp. a backside event and a filament eruption at the northwest limb. None of these CMEs has an earth-directed component. Spotless region NOAA 2441 displayed brief eruptive episodes with coronal dimming on 01 November between 21:00 and 24:00UT and again on 02 November around 21:10UT. No obvious CMEs could be associated with these events.

Solar wind parameters were relatively steady during the first half of the period. From around midnight till 07:30UT, a gradual increase in solar wind speed from 300 to 400 km/s was observed, coinciding wth particle densities up to 100/cm3 and increasing temperatures. Bz oscillated wildly between -25 and + 27 nT until about 08:00UT. This probably corresponds to the passing of the co-rotating interaction region. Solar wind speed then jumped to 550 km/s around 07:30UT, and again from 550 to 700 km/s around 11:00UT, indicating the arrival of the high speed stream (HSS) from the equatorial coronal hole (CH). Solar wind density quickly decreased and Bz stayed mostly positive between 0 and +20 nT (declining). Minor geomagnetic storming has been observed since the 06-09UT interval.

Minor to severe geomagnetic storming (K ranging from 5 to 7) is expected in response to the HSS of the CH.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 083, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Nov 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	122
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	114 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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