Просмотр архива за среда, 4 ноября 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2015 Nov 04 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Nov 2015	123	034
05 Nov 2015	120	026
06 Nov 2015	118	010

Bulletin

NOAA 2445 developed a magnetic delta structure near the southern tip of the main trailing spot. It was the source of 8 C-class flares and an impulsive M1.9 flare peaking at 03:26UT, which was associated with a non earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME). It also was the source of an M2.5 flare peaking at 12:03UT. More details in the next bulletin. NOAA 2443 continued its gradual decay, and is also losing its delta structure in the middle portion. It produced only 2 C-class flares, the strongest a C5.5 flare peaking at 19:09UT. A group of sunspots (Catania 65) is rounding the northeast limb, but has been relatively quiet so far. No earth-directed CMEs have been observed.

C-class flares are expected, with a chance on an isolated M-class flare from active regions NOAA 2443 and NOAA 2445.

Earth remained under influence of the high speed stream (HSS) of the equatorial coronal hole (CH). Solar wind speed undulated between 600 and 750 km/s, with a maximum speed near 770 km/s around 04:00UT. Bz varied between -10 and +10 nT, being mostly negative from 17:00UT till midnight, and again from 03:00UT till the end of the period. The planetary K index ranged from active to minor geomagnetic storming. The local K at Dourbes was unsettled to active, with a single minor storming episode at 08:00UT.

Unsettled to minor geomagnetic storming is expected, with a chance on a major (K = 6) storming episode in response to the continued effects from the HSS of the equatorial CH.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 111, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Nov 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	124
AK Chambon La Forêt	054
AK Wingst	033
Estimated Ap	034
Estimated international sunspot number	082 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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