Просмотр архива за понедельник, 14 декабря 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2015 Dec 14 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Dec 2015	126	007
15 Dec 2015	129	022
16 Dec 2015	129	010

Bulletin

A C1.0 flare was released by NOAA AR 2469, peaking at 00:14 UT on December 14. C flares are expected within the next 24 hours, with a chance for an M flare, especially from AR 2470. LASCO C2 imagery showed a slow CME first detected by CACTUS at 11:00 UT, associated with the C5.3 flare which peaked at 10:34 UT on December 13. The CME is directed towards the East and is not expected to be Earthbound. Solar wind speed decreased from about 480 to 380 km/s in the past 24 hours, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field varied between 2 and 5 nT. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 14. The expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream may cause active (K Dourbes = 4) geomagnetic levels on December 15 and 16, with a slight chance for a minor storm (K Dourbes = 5).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 079, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Dec 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	123
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	073 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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