Просмотр архива за вторник, 15 декабря 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2015 Dec 15 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Dec 2015	119	014
16 Dec 2015	121	010
17 Dec 2015	123	007

Bulletin

The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. C flares are possible within the next 24 hours, with a chance for an M flare, especially from AR 2470. The arrival of the expected coronal hole high speed stream was registered by ACE around 18h UT on December 14, preceded by a Corotating Interaction Region which arrived around 12:30 UT. Solar wind speed increased from about 395 to a peak of 570 km/s, and is currently near 550 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field rose from 5 nT to a peak of 17 nT, and is currently around 7 nT. There were several periods with Kp below -5 nT and even below -10 nT, resulting in Kp=5 at 15h and 21h UT on December 14, and at 0h on December 15. K Dourbes reached minor storm levels (=5) at 18h, 19h, and 21h UT on December 14, and at 5h UT on December 15. Active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on December 15 and 16, while quiet to unsettled conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected for December 17.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 063, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Dec 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	124
AK Chambon La Forêt	054
AK Wingst	027
Estimated Ap	030
Estimated international sunspot number	077 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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