Просмотр архива за четверг, 17 декабря 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2015 Dec 17 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Dec 2015	126	008
18 Dec 2015	126	008
19 Dec 2015	126	027

Bulletin

NOAA AR 2470 produced one C flare in the past 24 hours, a C1.3 flare peaking at 5:33 UT on December 17. C flares are possible within the next 24 hours, with a chance for an M flare. A halo CME was first seen in LASCO C2 images at 9:24 UT on December 16. It is an asymmetric full halo, probably frontside CME with bulk directed towards the ENE. LASCO C2 and C3 imagery provides an average plane-of-sky speed of 552 km/s. This CME is probably associated with the C6.6 flare released by NOAA AR 2468 with peak time 9:03 UT (which showed a dimming and a post eruption arcade as well). Its estimated arrival time at Earth is 4h UT on December 19. Another halo CME was first observed in LASCO C2 images at 14:24 UT on December 16. It is an asymmetric full halo, probably frontside CME with bulk directed towards the SSE. LASCO C2 and C3 imagery provides an average plane-of-sky speed of 489 km/s. It is probably associated to a dual ribbon flaring of a filament channel near NOAA AR 2468 starting around 12:57 UT on December 16. Its estimated arrival time at Earth is 6h UT on December 19. During the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed gradually decreased from about 520 to 370 km/s and then increased again to current values around 460 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field varied between 1 and 7 nT. During the past 24 hours, quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels were registered (K Dourbes between 0 and 3, NOAA Kp between 0 and 1). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 17 and 18. Due to the expected arrival of the December 16 CMEs, active to minor storm conditions (K Dourbes = 4-5) are expected on December 19, with a chance for moderate to major storm conditions (K Dourbes = 6-7).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 044, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Dec 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	126
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	058 - Based on 13 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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