Просмотр архива за пятница, 18 декабря 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2015 Dec 18 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
18 Dec 2015	116	006
19 Dec 2015	114	027
20 Dec 2015	112	010

Bulletin

The Sun produced 3 C flares in the past 24 hours. The brightest flare was a C4.6 flare released by NOAA AR 2469 which peaked at 05:09 UT on December 18. C flares are possible within the next 24 hours, with a chance for an M flare. During the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed gradually decreased from about 470 to 400 km/s with intermittent peaks up to 550 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field varied between 1 and 8 nT. During the past 24 hours, quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels were registered (K Dourbes between 1 and 3, NOAA Kp between 1 and 4). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 18. Due to the expected arrival of the December 16 CMEs, active to minor storm conditions (K Dourbes = 4-5) are expected on December 19, with a chance for moderate to major storm conditions (K Dourbes = 6-7). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels are expected on December 20, with a chance for active (K Dourbes = 4) excursions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 047, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 17 Dec 2015

Wolf number Catania	078
10cm solar flux	118
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	053 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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