Просмотр архива за воскресенье, 27 декабря 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2015 Dec 27 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
27 Dec 2015	113	015
28 Dec 2015	110	017
29 Dec 2015	115	013

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was low with the strongest flare a C4.1 flare peaking at 15:26 UT from NOAA AR 2473 (beta-gamma-delta, Catania nr 5). NOAA AR 2473 remains the most complex of the two regions on disk. It showed some further consolidation in the leading an intermediate spots. Flaring is expected at C level with also M level flaring quite possible. No Earth directed CME's have been detected. Solar wind speed continued to climb over the first half of the period reaching a short lived peak of around 640 km/s at 20:24 UT. The increase was associated with a rise in total interplanetary magnetic field to around 7-8 nT and a sustained period of negative Bz around -6nT before midnight. Solar wind speed meanwhile recovered to an intermediate value of around 530 km/s and also magnetic field recovered to 5-6 nT. A corresponding isolated period of minor geomagnetic storm levels was reported around midnight (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 5 for the 21-24 UT period) with otherwise quiet to active conditions (local K Dourbes 2-4, NOAA Kp 2-3). Slightly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist with essentially quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions although some periods of active geomagnetic conditions can not be excluded. The influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream may further enhance solar wind and geomagnetic conditions from late December 28 onwards.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 063, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 26 Dec 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	117
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	019
Estimated Ap	015
Estimated international sunspot number	056 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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