Просмотр архива за понедельник, 28 декабря 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2015 Dec 28 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
28 Dec 2015	107	007
29 Dec 2015	112	012
30 Dec 2015	115	007

Bulletin

Solar activity has been low with only a couple of C flares over the period. NOAA AR 2473 produced the strongest one, a C8.0 flare peaking at 00:28UT. During the writing of this report another flare from NOAA AR 2473 was ongoing, likely to peak near M1 level. NOAA AR 2473 remains capable of strong flaring. Flaring at M level is likely with also a slight chance for an X flare. No CMEs have been detected in coronagraph data. Total interplanetary magnetic field has decreased over the period from over 5nT to around the 2-4 nT range. After initially remaining elevated at levels around 520 km/s, solar wind speed started to decrease towards current levels of 440 km/s. Also temperature has decreased over the period. The magnetic field Bz component has been variable but with an extended period of positive values. The magnetic field phi angle switched back and forth between inward and outward direction and is expected to settle in the outward direction. Later today or tomorrow we may experience a renewed increase in solar wind conditions due to the possible influence of a high speed stream from a small equatorial coronal hole. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 1-3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to continue with some active periods possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 065, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 27 Dec 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	110
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	062 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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