Просмотр архива за среда, 21 декабря 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2016 Dec 21 1248 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
21 Dec 2016	076	019
22 Dec 2016	077	006
23 Dec 2016	078	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was quiet in the past 24 hours. No flares were observed. There are two numbered sunspot group observed on the visible side of the sun, NOAA AR 2619 and NOAA AR 2620. Their magnetic configuration is simple. No Earth directed CMEs were observed. The large equatorial coronal hole with the low latitude extend became geoeffective today (21-Dec-2016). Solar proton flux intensity is expected to lie within the background levels. Solar activity is expected to be low with some probability for B-class flares. Variations of the solar wind parameters were very low till 04:00 UT today (21-Dec-2016). Then the expected fast solar wind stream from the large equatorial coronal hole arrived at the Earth. The solar wind speed increased from about 350 km/s till 640 km/s at 12:00 UT. Simultaneously, the Total Interplanetary Magnetic field (IMF) strength variations started to vary between 9 nT and 13 nT, while Bz oscillated between -13 nT and 13 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were ranged from quiet to moderate (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3). However the beginning of the minor geomagnetic storm can be expected in a few hours from now. The most probable expected value of the NOAA Kp index is 5.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 031, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Dec 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	075
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	025 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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