Просмотр архива за четверг, 22 декабря 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2016 Dec 22 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Major magstorm expected (A>=50 or K>=6)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
22 Dec 2016	076	029
23 Dec 2016	077	020
24 Dec 2016	076	012

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. There has been one B2.7 flare peaking at 14:19 UT on 21-Dec-2016, coming from Active Region (AR) 2620, that most probably belongs to the next solar cycle 25 by its high latitude position and reverse polarity. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. There are no significant Active Regions (AR) on the Sun, therefore solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a small chance of C-class flares. The anticipated arrival of the high speed stream (HSS) from the huge coronal hole (CH) yesterday morning (around 04:00 UT, 21-12-2016) manifested itself as an increase of the solar wind speed from about 380 km/s to 550 km/s (DSCOVR data). Later the solar wind speed increased till about 650km/s at 14:00 UT yesterday. Maximum solar wind speeds near 716 km/s were recorded around 05:30 UT today (22-12-2016), its current values now fluctuating between 610 and 700 km/s. Bz varied between -9 and +12 nT during the first half of the period, but is currently fluctuating between -6 and +6 nT. Active to major geomagnetic conditions were recorded (K Dourbes between 2 and 5, NOAA Kp between 4 and 6). Over the next 24-48 hours, wind speed is expected to vary around 630 km/s, with Bz continuing to make occasional strong negative excursions. Active to moderate storm conditions are expected, a major storming interval (K-index = 6) not excluded.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 017, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Dec 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	075
AK Chambon La Forêt	049
AK Wingst	026
Estimated Ap	027
Estimated international sunspot number	031 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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