Просмотр архива за среда, 7 декабря 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2022 Dec 07 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
07 Dec 2022	145	018
08 Dec 2022	146	028
09 Dec 2022	147	012

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity was at low level with several C-class flares being detected in the last 24 hours. The largest flare was a C1.3 flare, peaking at 00:59 UTC on Dec 07, associated with Catania sunspot group 8 (NOAA AR 3153). Catania sunspot groups 11 and 12 (NOAA ARs 3156 and 3158) were inactive. Catania sunspot groups 8, 9 and 13 (NOAA ARs 3153, 3155 and 3157) produced only low-level C-class flares in the last day. Catania sunspot group 14 (NOAA ARs 3159 and 3160) is rotating into the disk, it has simple magnetic configuration. As there are no complex active regions observed on the visible side of the solar disk, solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low levels, with C-class flares likely and a chance for M-class flares.

During last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold during the last 24 hours. The electron flux is expected to continue to exceed this threshold over the next day. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at moderate levels in the next 24 hours. Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters followed a declining trend. The solar wind velocity was close to 320 km/s; the total interplanetary magnetic field was weak and below the value of 6 nT; and the southward interplanetary magnetic, Bz component, ranged between -3 nT and 2 nT. Today, since about 08:40 UTC on Dec 07, the total interplanetary magnetic field rose to 14 nT. This might be associated with arrival of the compression region in front of the expected HSS from a negative polarity coronal hole or with an ICME, more information will be given as more data becomes available. The solar wind velocity is expected to continue to be slightly enhanced in the next days.

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels (NOAA KP 1-2 and Local K Dourbes 1-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be active, with possible isolated minor storm periods during next hours due to arrival of the expected HSS.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 132, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 06 Dec 2022

Wolf number Catania	129
10cm solar flux	144
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	121 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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