Просмотр архива за четверг, 8 декабря 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2022 Dec 08 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
08 Dec 2022	144	021
09 Dec 2022	146	023
10 Dec 2022	147	013

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity was at low level with several C-class flares being detected in the last 24 hours. The largest flare was a C5.8 flare, peaking at 12:56 UTC on Dec 07, associated with Catania sunspot group 13 (NOAA AR 3157). Catania sunspot group 3155 (NOAA AR 9) is currently rotating over the west solar limb. Catania sunspot group 8 (NOAA ARs 3153) produced only low-level C-class flares in the last day. Catania sunspot groups 9, 11, 15, 12, 14 and 16 (NOAA ARs 3155, 3156, 3158, 3159 and 3160) were inactive. As there are no complex active regions observed on the visible side of the solar disk, solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low levels, with C-class flares likely and a chance for M-class flares.

During last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold during the last 24 hours, it decreased to values below the 1000 pfu threshold at around 15UTC on Dec 07. The electron flux is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate to normal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind conditions became slightly disturbed with the total interplanetary magnetic field rose to 20 nT at around 16 UTC on 07 Dec, decreasing after to 12 nT. The Bz component ranged between -12 nT and 16 nT. The solar wind velocity followed an increasing trend, rising from 360 km/s to 540 km/s. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field towards the Sun). This is associated with the arrival of the expected HSS from a negative polarity coronal hole, probably combined with an ICME at the beginning. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to be elevated in the next days.

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet up to minor storm levels (NOAA KP 2-5 and Local K Dourbes 1-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled to active, with possible isolated minor storm periods during next hours due to arrival of the HSS.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 130, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 07 Dec 2022

Wolf number Catania	166
10cm solar flux	148
AK Chambon La Forêt	030
AK Wingst	017
Estimated Ap	018
Estimated international sunspot number	134 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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