Просмотр архива за среда, 6 декабря 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2023 Dec 06 1243 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Dec 2023	142	017
07 Dec 2023	142	017
08 Dec 2023	142	017

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderated over past 24 hours with several M-class flares. The M-class flares were produced by the bipolar active region NOAA 3513. This new region also produced several C-class flares. The currently most complex region, NOAA 3511, with a beta-gamma magnetic class, showis goring and has produced several C-class flares. The other regions, NOAA 3500, and 3510 continue to produce C-class flares. C-class flares are expected in the next 24 hours with some chances of M-class flare from NOAA 3513 and possibly NOAA 3511.

Выбросы корональной массы

No Earth directed coronal mass ejection was identified in the currently available SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronographe images.

Корональные отверстия

The large equatorial coronal hole (negative polarity) is currently on the geoeffective location of the Sun (on the West side near longitudes 45-55 degrees).

Солнечный ветер

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions near Earth are affected by the High-Speed Stream (HSS) from the large equatorial coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on Saturday 2 of December. The SW speed ranged between 505 km/s and 665 km/s, the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) decreased to values below 6.5 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -4.5 and 4.6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was negative (directed towards the Sun) during the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to remain strongly affected by the said HSS during the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were mainly unsettle both globally and locally (NOAA-Kp and K-BEL 1 to 3) during the last 24 hours. We expect mainly unsettled condition in the next 24 hours in response to the ongoing fast solar wind conditions, possibly with short periods of active conditions.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours and it is expected to remain mostly below 1000 pfu during the next 24 hours, however, due to the ongoing fast solar wind condition we expect the greater than 2 MeV electron flux to show some increases. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours with also some increases due to the ongoing solar wind conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 143, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Dec 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	142
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	015
Estimated Ap	043
Estimated international sunspot number	132 - Based on 06 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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