Просмотр архива за четверг, 7 декабря 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2023 Dec 07 1248 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
07 Dec 2023	131	007
08 Dec 2023	131	007
09 Dec 2023	131	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderat over past 24 hours with an M-class flare and several C-class flares. The M2.3-class flares was produced by the bipolar active region NOAA 3513 with a peak time at 22:01. This egion also produced several C-class flares. The currently most complex region, NOAA 3511, with a beta-gamma magnetic class, was stable producing several C-class flares. The other region, NOAA 3507, also produced C-class flares. C-class flares are expected in the next 24 hours with some chances of M-class flare from NOAA 3513 and possibly NOAA 3511.

Выбросы корональной массы

No Earth directed coronal mass ejection was identified in the currently available SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronographe images.

Корональные отверстия

A new mid-latitude south coronal hole has now reach the central median.

Солнечный ветер

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions near Earth remained affected by the High-Speed Stream (HSS) from the large equatorial coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on Saturday 2 of December. The SW speed decreased from 628 km/s and 478 km/s, the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) was below 5.0 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -3.6 and 3.5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was negative (directed towards the Sun) during the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to returned to a slow solar wind regime in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were mainly quiet to unsettle both globally and locally (NOAA-Kp and K-BEL 1 to 3) during the last 24 hours. We expect mainly quiet conditions in the next 24 hours in response to the return of the slow solar wind conditions.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, went above the the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours due to the ongoing fast solar wind condition. It is expected to remain close to 1000 pfu during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours with also some increases due to the ongoing solar wind conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 126, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 06 Dec 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	130
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	147 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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