Перегляд архіву понеділок, 6 січня 2014

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2014 Jan 06 1240 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10 см потік	Ap
06 Jan 2014	220	003
07 Jan 2014	220	009
08 Jan 2014	220	017

Бюлетень

A proton event is currently in progress. From January 6 on at 8h20 UTC the proton flux started to rise for > 10 MeV, > 50 MeV and > 100 MeV the energy levels. The event threshold of 10 pfu was passed on 9h15 UTC for > 10 MeV protons and on 9h45 UTC for > 50 MeV protons. The proton flux is still above (>10 MeV) or near (>50 MeV) the event threshold. This proton event was due to a strong flare erupting from NOAA AR 1936, which has turned around the west limb a few days ago. The flare was visible around 7h45 UTC in STEREO A EUV195 and (partly) in SDO/AIA imagery. The flare was associated with a metric type II radio burst, detected in Learmonth (estimated shock wave speed 1383 km/s) and Culgoora spectrographic data. There is also a strong westward halo CME, observed by STEREO A/COR2 and LASCO/C2. The CME speed at eruption is estimated around 1200 km/s, but has slowed down to 900 km/s. Due to the position of the solar origin we estimate the geoeffectiveness of this CME to be limited to at most a glancing blow around January 8 at 4h UTC. NOAA AR 1944 was relatively stable and produced three C flares over the past 24 hours. Region NOAA AR 1946 has shown some growth. The likelihood for C and M flares remains high. There is a slight chance for an X-flare. Current solar wind speed has decreased to 400 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field remains around 5 nT, with a fluctuating Bz-component. Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet (estimated NOAA Kp and local K_Dourbes and K_Izmiran=0 to 1). Mainly quiet conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Unsettled to active (K=3 to 4) conditions might be reached on January 8 due to the possible arrival of a glancing blow from the CMEs of January 4 and January 6.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 120, за даними 09 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 05 Jan 2014

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	218
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	002
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	002
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	095 - За даними 19 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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