Перегляд архіву вівторок, 7 січня 2014

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2014 Jan 07 1240 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10 см потік	Ap
07 Jan 2014	210	008
08 Jan 2014	210	017
09 Jan 2014	210	007

Бюлетень

Six C flares and two M flares were erupted on the solar front disk during the past 24 hours. An impulsive M7.2 flare erupted on January 7 at 10:13 UTC. SDO/AIA imagery revealed NOAA AR 1944 as the source region. An M1.0 flare erupted from NOAA AR 1946 peaking at 3:53 UTC. Due to a data gap in SOHO/LASCO coronagraphic data, it is not clear yet whether these events were associated with a CME. STEREO A and B data also reveal flaring activity on the backside of the solar disk. Flaring originated from old region NOAA AR 1936 on January 6 at 22:35 UTC. STEREO coronagraphic data observed a CME (first measurement on January 7 at 4:25 UTC in STEREO B), which is propagating to the South. The CME is probably related to the backsided event, but confirmation will be needed when more coronagraphic data are available. The likelihood for C and M flares remains high; resp 90% and 50%. There is a chance of 20% for an X-flare. Flaring activity is mainly expected from NOAA ARs 1944, 1946 and 1942. In case of a CME associated with these recent frontsided flares, it has the potential to be geo-effective. The proton flux is still above the threshold for the > 10 MeV protons, but is starting to decline. We are currently in a slow solar wind (speed is 350 km/s). The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field was maximally 4 nT, with a mainly negative Bz-component. Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet (estimated NOAA Kp and local K=0 to 2). Quiet conditions are expected to continue until the possible arrival of a glancing blow from the CMEs of January 4 and January 6. Unsettled to active (K=3 to 4) conditions might be reached on January 8.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 106, за даними 11 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 06 Jan 2014

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	204
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	003
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	002
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	123 - За даними 17 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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