Перегляд архіву четвер, 9 січня 2014

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2014 Jan 09 1253 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Severe magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Сонячні протони

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10 см потік	Ap
09 Jan 2014	170	073
10 Jan 2014	160	075
11 Jan 2014	160	031

Бюлетень

Three C flares occurred since our last bulletin. Two flares originated from NOAA AR 1944 (Catania sunspot group 98) and one from NOAA AR 1946 (Catania sunspot group 97). NOAA AR 1944 showed signs of decay in size, but is still strongly connected to neighbouring regions NOAA AR 1946 and 1943. More flaring activity is possible from these regions within the next 48 hours. Chances for C flares are 70%, for M flares 50% and X flares 20%. Two coronal holes are currently located at the central meridian, one between -15 and +20 degrees latitude and one between 25 and 60 degrees latitude. A high speed stream might be reaching the Earth from late January 10 and early January 11 (UTC time) on. No additional Earth directed CMEs were detected. The proton flux is still very high for >10MeV protons, but decreasing. It reached a maximum value of around 1000 sfu and now has a value near 300 sfu. The proton event is expected to continue for the next few hours. The proton flux for >50 and >100MeV protons is currently below the event threshold. Proton fluxes might rise again in case of major flares. Solar wind measurements show no signs of the expected arrival yet of the CME of January 9. Solar wind speed has risen to a maximum near 500 km/s and currently has a value of 400 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field is fluctuating between 0 and 9 nT. The Bz- component achieves values in the ranges from -8 to +6 nT. Minor to severe storm (K=5 to 8) conditions are expected, due to arrival of the CME of January 7. Aurorae might be seen at higher latitudes on January 9 until the noon of January 10 under clear sky conditions. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to stay near K=4 to 5 due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream on January 11.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 074, за даними 09 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 08 Jan 2014

Число Вольфа, Катанія	117
Сонячний потік 10 см	195
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	007
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	007
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	082 - За даними 17 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

Весь час у UTC

<< На сторінку денного огляду