Перегляд архіву середа, 5 лютого 2014

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2014 Feb 05 1313 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
05 Feb 2014	186	004
06 Feb 2014	184	004
07 Feb 2014	180	014

Бюлетень

Catania sunspot group 28 (NOAA AR 1967) stopped growing, and produced only one M-class flare in the past 24 hours (M1.5 flare peaking at 16:02 UT yesterday). Catania sunspot group 27 (NOAA AR 1968) produced only C-class flares, but exhibited the emergence of new magnetic flux and new sunspots this morning. These two groups keep respectively beta-gamma-delta and beta-gamma configurations of the photospheric magnetic field. We expect further flaring activity on the C- and M-level in these two groups, with an X-class flare being possible but unlikely. Due to the position of both sunspot groups still close to the solar central meridian (around 20-30 degrees from it), a CME associated with a flare in these active regions may arrive at the Earth. A major CME in one of these sunspot groups may lead to a proton event due to their position in the western hemisphere, so we maintain the warning condition. A weak partial halo CME first appeared in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 16:36 UT yesterday. It had the angular width of around 240 degrees and the plane-of-the-sky projected speed around 500 km/s. It was associated with the above-mentioned M1.5 flare in the Catania sunspot group 28 (NOAA AR 1967), a post-eruption arcade in its western part, and weak coronal dimmings. We expect at most the arrival of the CME-driven shock wave at the Earth, on February 8, most probably without strong geomagnetic consequences (K = 4 at most). Another partial halo CME (first appearing in the LASCO C2 field of view at 19:48 UT, angular width around 130 degrees) is a far side event (with the source region around S20W170 as seen from the Earth). A narrow coronal hole extended in latitude from the equator to approximately N60 reached the solar central meridian late yesterday evening. We expect the fast flow from this coronal hole to arrive at the Earth late on February 7 (see below). The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 350 km/s) solar wind flow with anomalously high (around 10 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. The source of this high magnetic field is not clear at the moment. Due to the low solar wind speed, we expect quiet geomagnetic conditions. Late on February 7 we expect the arrival of the fast flow from the extended coronal hole (see above), resulting in active (K = 4) geomagnetic conditions.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 122, за даними 15 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 04 Feb 2014

Число Вольфа, Катанія	183
Сонячний потік 10 см	188
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	004
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	003
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	108 - За даними 20 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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