Перегляд архіву четвер, 8 січня 2015

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Jan 08 1243 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
08 Jan 2015	151	022
09 Jan 2015	156	019
10 Jan 2015	161	013

Бюлетень

Solar activity has been low. The largest flare was a C4.2 flare peaking at 4:34 UT from Catania region 49 (NOAA 2253). Catania 50 (NOAA 2257) continued to grow but was inactive and the new spots turning into view on the southern hemisphere were numbered Catania 55 and 57 (NOAA 2259). Further C flaring is expected with still a chance for an M flare and also a possibility for a proton event should Catania region 49 (NOAA 2253) produce significant flaring. No Earth directed CME's were recorded. Solar wind conditions slowly recovered after yesterdays CME arrival. Solar wind speed was mainly in the 420-500 km/s range. Total magnetic field recovered to the 6 to 13 nT range and is presently around 9 nT. During the episode of elevated total magnetic field, Bz was pronounced negative before the start of the reporting period, evolving to pronounced positive after UT noon and becoming variable in the +/- 6nT range around 20:00UT as total magnetic field values recovered. The magnetic field phi angle became positive after the event. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to active in the wake of yesterdays CME. Elevated solar wind conditions are expected to continue under the anticipated influence of a returning positive polarity coronal hole. Corresponding quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected with minor storms possible.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 076, за даними 04 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 07 Jan 2015

Число Вольфа, Катанія	142
Сонячний потік 10 см	147
AK Chambon La Forêt	038
AK Wingst	021
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	025
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	080 - За даними 17 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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