Перегляд архіву середа, 4 лютого 2015

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Feb 04 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
04 Feb 2015	149	007
05 Feb 2015	149	007
06 Feb 2015	149	007

Бюлетень

Solar activity was moderate with NOAA AR 2277 (Catania 78, 79) producing an M1.2 flare peaking at 02:15UT. Apart from that, only some minor C flares were detected, mostly from NOAA 2277 (Catania 78, 79), but also from Catania 82 (NOAA 2280). NOAA region 2277 continues to carry opposite polarity field is its intermediate region. A new region rotated onto disc in the northern hemisphere and is numbered NOAA 2281. We expect C flaring for the coming days, especially from NOAA region 2277 with also a chance for an M flare. There is a slight chance for a proton event should 2277 produce significant flaring. A filament eruption occurred at 10N35E at 12:00 UT February 3. The associated CME was directed northeast and narrow. SoHA LASCO C2 showed two westbound CME's respectively souhwest from 3:12 UT onwards and northwest from 5:24 onwards. Both are judged to be originating from on or behind the west limb. No Earth directed CMEs were recorded. Solar wind conditions have been recovering from the influence of a high speed stream. solar wind speed has dropped continuously from around 580 km/s to about 470 km/s. Total magnetic field was roughly in the 2.5 to 4 nT range. with Bz variable but predominantly negative. The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 2-3). A further decrease to nominal solar wind conditions is expected with associated and quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions over the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 074, за даними 14 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 03 Feb 2015

Число Вольфа, Катанія	123
Сонячний потік 10 см	149
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	017
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	017
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	062 - За даними 17 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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