Перегляд архіву четвер, 5 листопада 2015

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Nov 05 1230 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
05 Nov 2015	109	017
06 Nov 2015	107	010
07 Nov 2015	105	031

Бюлетень

Flaring activity was concentrated at the very beginning of the period. NOAA 2445 produced an M2.5 flare peaking at 12:03UT. It was associated with a non earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME). NOAA 2443 produced an M3.7 flare peaking at 13:52UT. The associated CME had an earth- directed component with impact expected on 07 November. Both active regions have lost their magnetic delta, but still show some magnetic mixing. NOAA 2448, near the northeast limb, produced the only other flare of the period (C1 at 22:53UT). No flaring above the C1 level has been recorded since midnight. An active region is approaching the southeast limb. No other earth-directed CMEs have been observed.

C-class flares are expected, with a chance on an isolated M-class flare.

Earth remained under the influence of the high speed stream (HSS) of the equatorial coronal hole (CH). Solar wind speed declined from about 700 km/s to its current value just above 500 km/s. Bz varied between -5 and +8 nT, being mostly positive till about 06:00UT, then turning negative till about 10:00UT. The interplanetary magnetic field has been directed away from the Sun since about 20:00UT. Minor geomagnetic storming persisted till early in the period (15UT). From then on, quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were recorded.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected, with still a chance on a minor storming episode as Earth is exiting the HSS of the equatorial CH. Minor to major storming is possible on 07 November with the expected arrival of the 04 November CME.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 091, за даними 17 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 04 Nov 2015

Число Вольфа, Катанія	115
Сонячний потік 10 см	114
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	026
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	030
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	105 - За даними 23 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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