Перегляд архіву середа, 2 грудня 2015

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Dec 02 1238 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
02 Dec 2015	094	013
03 Dec 2015	093	013
04 Dec 2015	092	015

Бюлетень

Solar activity has been low over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C2.2 class flare. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2458 (Cao Beta) has produced most of the activity, including the C2.2 flare peaking at 04:46 UT this morning. AR 2458 has shown some evidence of flux emergence and has the potential to produce more activity. The above-mentioned C2.2 flare has shown evidence of an associated EUV wave and coronal dimming, indicating an associated eruption. There are currently no coronagraph observations to verify this, but the source region is in a location likely to produce an Earth directed CME. A PRESTO will be issued once/if the presence of an associated CME is verified. The solar wind speed has been slowly declining over the past 24 hours from around 550 km /s to 400 km /s. The total magnetic field has fluctuated between 5 and 10 nT, and the Bz component has remained mostly negative around -5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between quiet and active (NOAA Kp 2-4, local K Dourbes 1-4). There is currently a large positive polar coronal hole and smaller positive transient coronal hole at lower latitudes on the West limb of the Sun. These have been causing the enhanced solar wind conditions at the Earth. Solar wind conditions are expected to return to background levels over the next day and geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled. An eruption was detected in EUV imagery yesterday, with a favourable source position for it to interact with the Earth. However, there were no supporting coronagraph observations to estimate the arrival time at Earth. We may experience enhanced activity at the Earth as a consequence over the next couple of days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 046, за даними 16 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 01 Dec 2015

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	095
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	021
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	019
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	027 - За даними 13 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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