Перегляд архіву понеділок, 16 листопада 2015

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Nov 16 1233 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
16 Nov 2015	105	008
17 Nov 2015	103	007
18 Nov 2015	101	020

Бюлетень

Solar flaring activity was very low with X-ray flux remaining below C level. A filament eruption occurred near the disk centre around 23:00UT with an associated rise in X-ray flux reaching a peak at B7.8 level at 00:08UT. The event was followed by a secondary filament eruption (around 2:14UT) located more to the South-West. All regions on disk were relatively stable or decaying. Quiet conditions are expected to continue. Coronagraph data show the signatures of the CME associated to the filament eruption from around 23:24 onwards (in SoHO/LASCO C2), but suffer from a subsequent data gap. The eruption is primarily directed South-West and later coronagraph images show an angular extent of around 180 degrees. Given the location of the source region and the partial halo character a possible impact at Earth is quite probable. Following receipt of the missing coronagraph data a more detailed impact assessment will be made along with a more accurate velocity estimate. Solar wind conditions were close to nominal. solar wind speed declined to 370 km/s, while total magnetic field rose to values of around 9nT. Bz was predominantly negative with peaks down to -8nT. The phi angle was in the positive (away) sector. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active (K Dourbes 1-3, while NOAA Kp 1-4). Nominal solar wind conditions and associated quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 to 48 hours with later slightly enhanced conditions possible by the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 036, за даними 13 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 15 Nov 2015

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	106
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	010
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	009
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	061 - За даними 12 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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