Перегляд архіву вівторок, 17 листопада 2015

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Nov 17 1230 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Геомагнетизм

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
17 Nov 2015	105	006
18 Nov 2015	103	038
19 Nov 2015	103	023

Бюлетень

Solar conditions were quiet with the X-ray flux remaining at a background value of around B2-B3 level apart from a B4.7 flare peaking at 11:19UT from over the North-East limb. Decay and footpoint spreading was recorded in NOAA regions 2453 and 2455 (Catania group 76) while some flux emergence and development occurred in NOAA region 2454 (Catania group 78). Quiet Solar conditions are expected. The double filament eruption of late November 15 produced a double CME towards the South West. As reported yesterday, the first appearance in SoHO/LASCO C2 is at 23:24UT. Subsequent coronagraph images now show that the angular extent of this first CME is rather limited. However, the core of the CME corresponding to the second filament eruption is visible from 3:12 UT November 16 onwards. It is directed primarily in SouthWest direction and reaches an angular extent of around 180 degrees. Projected speeds are higher than that of the first CME and between 600-700 km/s. Cactus failed to detect the second CME within the earlier detection. A glancing blow or shock arrival from the second CME can be expected around noon November 18. No other CME's have been recorded in coronagraph data. Solar wind conditions were close to nominal with wind speeds in the 365-385 km/s range and total magnetic field in the 5-8 nT range. Bz started the period around -8nT but became more variable (as compared to previous reporting period) throughout the period. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 1-3). Solar wind conditions are expected to remain nominal initially with quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions. While tomorrow around UT noon a combination of an expected negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream and the anticipated arrival of the November 16 CME will enhance solar wind conditions with possibly active geomagnetic conditions or minor geomagnetic storms.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 035, за даними 14 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 16 Nov 2015

Число Вольфа, Катанія	044
Сонячний потік 10 см	106
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	015
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	015
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	037 - За даними 20 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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