Перегляд архіву четвер, 31 грудня 2015

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Dec 31 1230 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
31 Dec 2015	100	049
01 Jan 2016	102	031
02 Jan 2016	105	024

Бюлетень

Solar activity was low. The only prominent region on disk, NOAA 2473, showed decay and produced the only 2 C flares of the period of which the strongest a C4.3 flare peaking at 22:45UT. NOAA AR 2473 continued to show decay, especially in the trailing spots. Flaring at C level is expected with only a slight chance for an M flare from NOAA AR 2473. No Earth directed CMEs have been recorded. The >10MeV have recovered to nominal values with a slight chance for a proton event remaining, associated with possible activity from region 2473. Solar wind conditions remained nominal until midnight when at 00:02UT a shock occurred in ACE solar wind data, marking the arrival of the December 28 CME. Total interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 6nT to 13nT while solar wind speed jumped from 340km/s to 400 km/s. Solar wind speed kept increasing to a peak of around 500 km/s and is currently at around 460 km/s. Total magnetic field was in the 9-16nT range but Bz was initially variable and remained above -10nT. More recently, stronger and more pronounced negative peaks down to -13nT are recorded. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced over the next days in the wake of the CME today and into a sector boundary crossing with later the possible high speed stream influence from the low latitude extension of the (positive polarity) northern polar coronal hole. Only up to active geomagnetic conditions have been reported so far (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes reached 4). Subject to the evolution of the magnetic field and its Bz component minor to major geomagnetic storming conditions remain possible in the wake of the CME later easing to possible isolated active periods.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 019, за даними 17 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 30 Dec 2015

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	102
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	004
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	003
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	030 - За даними 30 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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