Перегляд архіву середа, 27 січня 2016

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2016 Jan 27 1238 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
27 Jan 2016	115	008
28 Jan 2016	116	018
29 Jan 2016	117	016

Бюлетень

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. The largest flare was a C1.3 class flare. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2489 (Beta Dao) has been most active. Both ARs 2488 and 2489 appear stable but have exhibited some flux emergence. There is currently a large Northern polar coronal hole which has moved into the Western hemisphere and may increase solar wind speeds over the coming days. A filament channel adjacent to Active Region (AR) 2487 (Alpha Axx) erupted at approximately 16:40 UT yesterday (2016-Jan-26). The filament was located in the Western hemisphere around S20W50. The CME was first observed at 18:24 UT in LASCO observations. The Computer Aided CME Tracking (CACTUS) tool measured the velocity to be 437 km/s. The CME may arrive at the Earth on 30-Jan-2016 at 06:00 UT +/- 12 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares. The solar wind speed has fluctuated between 340 and 380 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has slowly increased from around 5 to 10 nT. The Bz component was largely positive, fluctuating between 0 and 8 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 1-3 (NOAA) and local K index 1-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. A positive polar coronal hole has rotated into the Western hemisphere and the resulting high-speed stream (HSS) is expected to enhance solar wind speeds later today / early tomorrow and persist for a couple of days, this may increase geo-activity in the coming days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 086, за даними 08 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 26 Jan 2016

Число Вольфа, Катанія	080
Сонячний потік 10 см	115
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	003
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	003
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	065 - За даними 18 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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