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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Jan 30 1245 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
30 Jan 2022	120	007
31 Jan 2022	120	007
01 Feb 2022	120	007

Бюлетень

Solar activity was active over the last 24 hours. An M1.1 flare occurred in Catania sunspot group 17 (AR NOAA 2936), with a peak time on January 29 at 23:32 UTC. This flare is associated with a large coronal dimming observed in SDO/AIA images and detected by the Solar Demon Tool. Several other C-class flares were also recorded, the latest being a C6.7-class on January 30 with a peak time at 07:19 UTC. Solar activity is expected remain active with C-class flares and possibly also M-class flare in the next 24 hours.

An Earth directed coronal mass ejection was observed on January 30 around 00:00 UTC by the coronagraph imagery SOHO/LASCO-C2, SOHO/LASCO-C3 and STEREO/COR2-A. It was also detected by SIDC/CACTus Tool. The projected speed in the plan of the sky was estimated to be around 425 km/s and 549 km/s. The coronal mass ejection is associated to the M1.1-class flare that took place in Catania sunspot group 17 (AR NOAA 2936) and a large coronal dimming. Due to the geo-effective location of the active region (Longitude -13 degrees and Latitude 22 degrees), the coronal mass ejection is estimated to be directed toward Earth and may potentially impact the solar wind conditions in the vicinity of Earth. Using all the available coronograph images the true speed was estimated to be around 1200 km/s and the arrival time is expected to be on February 02 mid day.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below the threshold in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence dropped to nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected remained at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters measured in the Earth environment (by DSCOVR) remained enhanced due to the effects of the solar high-speed stream connected to the Coronal Hole that crossed on January 26 (also positive magnetic polarity). The solar wind speed reached 559 km/s, the interplanetary magnetic field values were ranging between 5 nT and 7 nT, and its southward Bz-component fluctuated between -5.7 nT and 5.9 nT. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced for the flowing day.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (K_Bel 1-3) and at planetary levels reached active condition (NOAA-Kp 4) with short periods of active conditions in response to the solar wind enhancement. Mainly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 093, за даними 19 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 29 Jan 2022

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	014
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	016
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	069 - За даними 22 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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