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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Feb 26 1232 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
26 Feb 2022	098	010
27 Feb 2022	100	015
28 Feb 2022	101	007

Бюлетень

A region rotating into view from behind the southeast limb produced a C5.1 flare peaking at 21:40 UT on February 25. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 70%, mainly from this region, with a 20% chance for an M flare.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours, and is expected to exceed that threshold again in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR decreased from about 445 to 370 km/s in the past 24 hours. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field near Earth (IMF) varied between about 0 and 6 nT, and its orientation was predominantly away from the Sun. Bz was never below -5 nT. In the next days, enhanced solar wind levels are possible due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K-BEL between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active intervals are possible on February 26, 27 and 28, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals (K-BEL = 5), due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 025, за даними 25 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 25 Feb 2022

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	096
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	009
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	009
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	022 - За даними 23 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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