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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Feb 22 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
22 Feb 2022	098	019
23 Feb 2022	098	012
24 Feb 2022	098	007

Бюлетень

New alpha region NOAA 2955 produced 2 low C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 60%, mainly from region 2955.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours. There is a slight chance that it will exceed the 1000 pfu threshold in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 490 and 590 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values near 540 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field near Earth (IMF) varied between about 3 and 8 nT, while its orientation was away from the Sun. Bz was near or below -5 nT between 12:50 and 13:30 UT on February 21 and between 5:00 and 7:00 UT on February 22. A continuation of these enhanced solar wind conditions (under the influence of a high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole) is expected today, with a gradual decrease from February 23 onwards.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K-BEL between 2 and 4; NOAA Kp between 3 and 5) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active intervals (K-BEL = 4) are possible on February 22 and 23, with a chance for minor storm intervals (K-BEL = 5). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K-BEL < 4) are expected on February 24, with a chance for active intervals (K-BEL = 4).

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 036, за даними 11 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 21 Feb 2022

Число Вольфа, Катанія	060
Сонячний потік 10 см	098
AK Chambon La Forêt	027
AK Wingst	///
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	015
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	048 - За даними 20 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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