Перегляд архіву середа, 19 жовтня 2022

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Oct 19 1247 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
19 Oct 2022	110	006
20 Oct 2022	119	016
21 Oct 2022	105	006

Бюлетень

Solar flaring activity was at low levels, with flare of largest X-ray output being the C1.9-class flare from NOAA active Region (AR) 3124, peak time 18 October 14:13 UTC. ARs present on the disk have mainly been decaying. NOAA AR 3122 has rotated off disk. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares are possible.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections were observed in the last 24 hours. A southern coronal hole with negative polarity will be at the solar meridian on late 20 October. An associated high speed stream can be expected about 23-24 October.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to be about threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at this level in the next 24 hours.

The Solar Wind (SW) parameters showed a gradual return to background levels. The SW speed gradually dropped to 425 km/s over the last 24 hours. The total magnetic field (Bt) remained around 5 nT, while its Bz component ranged between -4 to 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed towards the Sun. The solar wind parameters expected to become enhanced over the next 24 hours, as we are awaiting the arrival of the high speed stream associated with the coronal hole that crossed central meridian on 17 October.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled levels (K Dourbes 3) over the last 24 hours. In the next 24 hours the conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance of active conditions.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 045, за даними 18 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 18 Oct 2022

Число Вольфа, Катанія	070
Сонячний потік 10 см	114
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	006
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	049 - За даними 30 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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