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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Oct 20 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
20 Oct 2022	113	012
21 Oct 2022	110	006
22 Oct 2022	109	005

Бюлетень

Solar flaring activity was at low levels, with flare of largest X-ray output being the C5.3-class flare from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3122, peak time 20 October 03:26 UTC. NOAA AR 3126 has slightly developed over the past 24 hours. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares are expected while M-class flares are possible.

From the Coronal Mass Ejections observed in the last 24 hours none is currently believed to be Earth-directed. The southern coronal hole with negative polarity is currently at the solar meridian. An associated high speed stream can be expected about 23-24 October.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux below the 1000 pfu alert threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to be about threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at this level in the next 24 hours.

The Solar Wind (SW) parameters continued the gradual return to background levels. The SW speed gradually dropped further 390 km/s over the last 24 hours. The total magnetic field (Bt) was around 5 nT, while its Bz component ranged between -5 to 4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed towards the Sun. The solar wind parameters could become enhanced over the next 24 hours, in the possibility the the high speed stream associated with the coronal hole that crossed central meridian on 17 October arrives.

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels (NOAA Kp and K Dourbes 0-2) over the last 24 hours. In the next 24 hours the conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a very slight chance of active conditions.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 032, за даними 17 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 19 Oct 2022

Число Вольфа, Катанія	057
Сонячний потік 10 см	113
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	004
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	002
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	045 - За даними 26 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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