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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Dec 19 1234 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
19 Dec 2022	156	015
20 Dec 2022	156	022
21 Dec 2022	156	015

Бюлетень

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. There are many sunspot regions currently on the solar surface visible from Earth and several C-class flares were recorded coming from bipolar sunspot regions (Beta magnetic class: NOAA-AR 3162, 3163, 3167 and 3169). The flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to remain at low levels, with C-class flares expected and a small possibility for M-class flares.

No clear Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were identified in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal to low levels and is expected to stay at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

In the beginning of the period, the solar wind parameters were reflecting slow solar wind conditions with the wind speed around 300 km/s. Then later the total interplanetary magnetic field became enhanced and reach values up to 16 nT with the southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, ranging between -13.3 nT and 8.1 nT. This enhancement of the solar wind parameters announce the very soon arrival of the high-speed stream associated with the negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere, which began to cross the central meridian on Dec 14. However, the impact may remain mild. From Dec 20 onwards, we are expecting the arrival of another high-speed stream, associated with the positive polarity, equatorial coronal hole that started to cross the central meridian on Dec 17.

During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettle (K-Bel=1-3 NOAA-Kp=1-3) with a short period of active condition (NOAA-Kp=4) due to the southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, being negative for a relatively long period. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled to active in the next days, due to the arrival of the previously mentioned high-speed streams.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 115, за даними 04 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 18 Dec 2022

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	156
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	005
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	003
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	130 - За даними 10 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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