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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2023 May 25 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
25 May 2023	162	015
26 May 2023	162	020
27 May 2023	162	005

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours remained at moderate levels with two low M-class flares. The strongest activity was an impulsive M1.9 flare, start time 17:04 UTC, end time 17:48 UTC, peak time 17:26 UTC on May 24th produced by NOAA AR 3311 (beta-gamma). This region was the main driver for the flaring activity and remains most complex region on the visible solar disc. Isolated low C-class flaring was produced by the largest region, NOAA AR 3310 (beta), and by NOAA AR 3312 (beta). Both regions exhibited some growth. Isolated low to high C-class flaring was also produced by NOAA AR 3314 (beta), which has exhibited growth and is now better separated from NOAA AR 3311 (beta- gamma). NOAA AR 3315 (beta) has developed more trailing spots and enlarged its area, but remained quiet.The solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low to moderate levels over the next days with small chances for an isolated X-class flaring.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) Solar wind parameters reflected the continuous influence of a high speed stream (HSS) from a negative polarity coronal hole. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 447 km/s to 689 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value of 6.6 nT and a minimum Bz of -6 nT. The B field was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated over the next days with the ongoing HSS passage and possible glancing blow arrival late on May 25th and May 26th.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with chances for isolated minor storms under the ongoing high speed stream influence and due to a possible glancing blow ICME passage late on May 25th and May 26th.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days with possible enhancements in case of increased levels of solar activity.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has crossed the 1000 pfu threshold for prolonged periods of time. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at elevated levels in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels over the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 144, за даними 20 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 24 May 2023

Число Вольфа, Катанія	190
Сонячний потік 10 см	164
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	012
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	012
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	145 - За даними 26 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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