Перегляд архіву субота, 17 червня 2023

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Jun 17 1233 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
17 Jun 2023	163	018
18 Jun 2023	168	010
19 Jun 2023	165	009

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels. The largest flare was a M1 flare peaking at 19:59 UTC on June 16, associated with NOAA AR 3331. NOAA AR 3335 and 3333 exhibited sunspot growth and are the most complex regions on the solar disk. The other regions on the disk (NOAA AR 3338 and 3336) are magnetically simpler but continue to produce low level C-class flares. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

Корональні викиди маси

In the last 24 hours there were no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) detected in the available coronagraph observations.

Корональні діри

A small positive negative polarity coronal hole and a larger negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere began to transit the central meridian on June 17.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind conditions reflected the continued influence of the high speed stream. The interplanetary magnetic field decreased from 8 nT to around 4nT. Bz had a minimum value of -6nT and was predominantly negative. The solar wind speed decreased from 650 km/s to values around 550 km/s. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards from the Sun). Over the next 24 hours, the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind speed are expected to continue to slowly decrease under the waning influence of the high speed stream.

Геомагнетизм

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions reached active conditions (NOAA KP 2-4 and K-Bel 2-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels over the next days, with further active intervals possible on June 17 while the solar wind speed remains elevated.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was increasing but remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to exceed this threshold over the next days. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at moderate levels for the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 127, за даними 20 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 16 Jun 2023

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	157
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	032
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	034
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	127 - За даними 29 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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