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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Jul 14 1238 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
14 Jul 2023	202	016
15 Jul 2023	202	029
16 Jul 2023	202	011

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels with background C-class flaring and two low M-class flares over the past 24 hours. There are eight numbered active regions on the visible solar disc. Two new, yet unnumbered, regions have rotated from over the north- east and south-east limb, the latter producing isolated low C-class flaring. The isolated impulsive M-class flaring was produced by the largest and most complex active regions on the visible disc. An M2.1-flare with start time 18:55 UTC, end time 19:36 UTC, peak time 19:20 UTC on July 13th, was produced by NOAA AR 3372 (beta-gamma-delta), which has further increased its number of trailing spots and the complexity of its underlying magnetic field configuration. An M1.0-flare with peak time 09:36 UTC on July 14th was produced by NOAA 3363 (beta-gamma-delta), which slightly decreased in size and number of trailing spots. Low C-class flaring was produced by the third more complex region on the visible disc, NOAA AR 3367 (beta-gamma-delta), which has shown some development. NOAA AR 3366, NOAA AR 3368 and NOAA AR 3369 have now rotated behind the west limb and NOAA AR 3361 (beta) is approaching the west limb. The remaining active regions have been simple and inactive. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the coming days with remaining high chances for further M-class flaring and some chances for isolated X-class flaring.

Корональні викиди маси

A faint full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data at 06:24 UTC on July 13th. The CME is bask-sided and no impact on Earth is expected. Another faint and slow westward partial halo CME was observed to lift off the solar surface at 13:48 UTC on July 13th. The CME seems related to a filament eruption near the north-west limb. Preliminary analysis based on the source location suggests no expected impact on Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) continued to register a weak transient arrival, possibly related to the expected glancing blow from the July 10th partial halo CME. The solar wind velocity remained very low in the range of 305 to 379 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached values of 14.5 nT with a minimum Bz of -10.9 nT. The B field started in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) until July 14th and has switched orientation a few times since then. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated with the ongoing transient and get further enhanced by an expected high speed stream arrival and another possible glancing blow over the next 24h.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet to unsettled with a single active period registered globally between 03-06 UC on July 14th. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions with chances for isolated minor storms are expected for the next 24h. Isolated moderate storms remain possible, though unlikely, on July 15th.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to continue so over the next days. Chances for some enhancements in the protons flux levels remain particularly related to possible activity from NOAA AR 3372 and NOAA AR 3363.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 was well below the 1000 pfu threshold, while the corresponding electron flux measured by GOES 18 slightly exceeded the 1000 pfu throughout the UTC evening of July 13th. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be mostly below the 1000 pfu threshold in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 156, за даними 16 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 13 Jul 2023

Число Вольфа, Катанія	169
Сонячний потік 10 см	203
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	012
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	010
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	149 - За даними 26 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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