Перегляд архіву четвер, 10 серпня 2023

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Aug 10 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10 см потік	Ap
10 Aug 2023	150	007
11 Aug 2023	150	007
12 Aug 2023	150	007

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity has been quite over the past 24 hours with few C-class flares beside the high number of sunspots on the disc. The larger flare was a C5.5-class flare produced by NOAA AR 3398 (Catania sunspot group 16) and was peaking at 02:42 UTC on August 10. The other regions did not show significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain quite over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flare and a very small chance of M-class flare.

Корональні викиди маси

A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed on August 09 at 16:12 UTC in SOHO/LASCO-C2. The SIDC Cactus Tool estimated an angular width of 350 degrees and median speed of 651 km/s on the coronagraph LASCO-C2 images. No source location is visible on the solar disc seen from Earth. It is believed to come from one of the very productive regions such as NOAA Active Region (AR) 3386 (Catania sunspot group 01) which is currently on the far side view. Therefore, due to the source location, no Earth-directed component of this CME is expected. No other CME with an Earth-directed component was identified in the SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph images over the past 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

The general solar wind parameters were close to the background levels over the past 24 hours indicating a slow solar wind speed conditions. The solar wind speed was below 420 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field was below 6.8 nT . The north-south component was fluctuating between -5.0 nT and 2.6 nT. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain as such for the next 24 hours.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet with some short unsettled periods (NOAA Kp 1-3, K Belgium 1-3) over the past 24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions with possible short unsettled periods are expected for the next 24 hours.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux started to rise at 21:46 UTC on August 07 and crossed the 10 MeV warning threshold at 01:10 UTC on August 08 as measured by GOES. This proton event was following the X1.5 class flare that was observed on August 07 peaking at 20:46 UTC. Since then the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained above the 10 MeV warning threshold. It started to slowly decreased and it is expected to remain close to the threshold or just below in the next 12-24 hours before reaching the background level. New proton event cannot be excluded due to the flaring activity.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and is expected to remain at this level during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 114, за даними 22 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 09 Aug 2023

Число Вольфа, Катанія	109
Сонячний потік 10 см	153
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	009
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	009
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	105 - За даними 25 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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