Перегляд архіву середа, 3 липня 2024

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Jul 03 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
03 Jul 2024	160	013
04 Jul 2024	168	010
05 Jul 2024	172	011

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels, with one M-class flare recorded. The largest flare was a M1.5-flare, with peak time 07:41 UTC on July 03 associated with NOAA AR 3730 (beta). There are currently 12 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3729 (beta-gamma) was the largest and most magnetically complex region on disk and produced most of the flares in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3721, NOAA AR 3722 and NOAA AR 3724 have started to rotate over the west limb. NOAA AR 3728 has turned into a plage region. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares likely and an unlikely chance for a X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

Two Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), were detected at 18:24 UTC on July 02 and at 08:36 UTC on July 03, in LASCO C2 data. These CME were associated respectively with a C4.8-flare, with peak time 20:57 UTC on July 02 and with a M1.5-flare, with peak time 07:41 UTC on July 03, both of these flares are associated with NOAA AR 3730. Further analysis is ongoing. Further analysis of the CME, seen at 11:24 UTC on June 01 in LASCO C2 data, shows that while the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss the Earth, a glancing blow is possible on July 05.

Сонячний вітер

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed varied within 320 - 420 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 2 nT and 6 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -4 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the negative sector. The solar wind is may become perturbed late on July 03, due to the possible ICME arrival of a June 29 CME.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (Kp 1-2) and locally quiet to unsettled (K_Bel 1-3). Unsettled to active conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 185, за даними 08 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 02 Jul 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	164
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	006
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	008
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	205 - За даними 15 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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