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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Jul 30 1232 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
30 Jul 2024	232	037
31 Jul 2024	239	083
01 Aug 2024	245	054

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at high levels, with nine M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M8.7 flare peaking at 12:47 UTC on July 29, associated with NOAA AR 3762 (beta-gamma). There are currently ten active regions on the solar disk. The most complex ones are NOAA ARs 3765 (beta-gamma-delta) and 3766 (evolved to magnetic type beta-gamma-delta). NOAA AR 3767 has decreased to beta. NOAA AR 3770 has evolved to beta-delta. NOAA AR 3762 has decreased to beta-gamma. NOAA 3756 has rotated behind the west limb. NOAA AR 3771 (alpha) has emerged in the northwest quadrant, near the equator. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

A coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 13:36 UTC on July 29. It is probably associated with an M8.7 flare from NOAA AR 3762. Preliminary analysis suggests a velocity of around 750 km/s. An Earth-directed component may be expected to arrive starting from late August 01. A CME was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 15:33 UTC on July 29, associated with a filament eruption in the southwest quadrant, south of NOAA AR 3768. Preliminary analysis suggests a velocity of around 400 km/s. No Earth directed component is expected. Further analysis of both events is ongoing. A filament eruption was observed on AIA 304 data around 00:50 UTC on July 30 in the northeast quadrant, near NOAA AR 3769. No impact on Earth is expected from this eruption.

Корональні діри

A northern, negative polarity coronal hole is still crossing the central meridian. A possible, mild high-speed stream associated with it could arrive at Earth starting from August 01, but may be indistinguishable from the expected coronal mass ejection (CME) arrivals.

Сонячний вітер

A shock was detected in the solar wind data (DSCOVR and ACE) around 23:20 UTC on July 29. The interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 4 nT to 14 nT, with the Bz component changing from -3 nT to 11 nT and then decreasing up to -12 nT. The solar wind speed jumped from 350 km/s to 440 km/s and increased up to 500 km/s. The solar wind density at the shock jumped from 1.84 ppcc to 7.25 ppcc and increased up to around 15 ppcc. The shock is most probably related to a late arrival of the halo coronal mass ejection (CME) detected on July 27. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was in the positive sector, changing to negative at 01:37 UTC on July 30. Further enhancements in the solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours due to the predicted arrival of several halo or partial halo CMEs observed on July 28-29.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions globally reached minor storm levels (NOAA Kp 5) between 03:00 and 06:00 UTC on July 30. Geomagnetic conditions locally are mostly at active levels (K BEL 4) since 03:00 UTC on July 30. Unsettled to major storm conditions (NOAA Kp 7), with possible severe storm intervals (NOAA Kp 8) are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours due to the predicted arrival of several halo or partial halo CMEs observed on July 28-29.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending new eruptive activity from NOAA ARs 3762, 3764, 3765, 3766 and 3768.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux seen by GOES-16 was close to the threshold level but remained below it. It has currently decreased to background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux seen by GOES-18 was over the threshold between 16:45 UTC on July 29 and 02:00 UTC on July 30. It has currently decreased to background levels. The greater that 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain mostly below the threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 223, за даними 23 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 29 Jul 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	223
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	008
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	008
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	215 - За даними 30 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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