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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Jul 12 1245 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
12 Jul 2024	203	005
13 Jul 2024	200	018
14 Jul 2024	200	016

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels with background C-class flaring. There are currently nine numbered active regions on the visible solar disc. The largest region remains NOAA AR 3738 (beta-gamma). NOAA AR 3743 (beta-gamma) has exhibited some growth and increased its magnetic complexity. Two new small and magnetically simple regions have been numbered, namely NOAA AR 3746 (beta) and NOAA AR 3747 (alpha). The remaining active regions have remained mostly stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with 70% chance for M-class flaring and 15% chances for isolated X-class flaring.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity weakly varied between 331 km/s and 443 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field registered a maximum value of 6.5 nT and a minimum Bz of -5 nT. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at background levels throughout July 12 and registered moderate disturbances on July 13 with anticipated high speed stream arrival related to a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and locally mostly quiet with a single unsettled period over Belgium. Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated for July 12 and Quiet to active conditions with possible isolated minor storm levels are expected on July 13th and July 14.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 166, за даними 10 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 11 Jul 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	205
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	006
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	006
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	172 - За даними 20 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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