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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Jul 13 1243 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
13 Jul 2024	208	007
14 Jul 2024	208	022
15 Jul 2024	208	010

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with background C-class flaring and an M1.4-flare, peak time 03:18 UTC on July 13, associated with the largest and most complex active region NOAA AR 3738 (beta-gamma). This region was responsible for most of the registered flaring activity. There are currently eight numbered active regions on the visible solar disc, including the newly numbered NOAA AR 3748 (beta). Two new regions (possibly returning regions NOAA AR 3719 and NOAA AR 3720) have rotated onto disc from behind the south-east limb. NOAA AR 3743 (beta) has slightly decreased its magnetic complexity and produced isolated high C-class flaring together with NOAA AR 3740 (beta), which is now rotating behind the west limb. The remaining active regions have remained mostly stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with 60% chance for M-class flaring and 15% chances for isolated X-class flaring.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity weakly varied between 308 km/s and 390 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field registered a maximum value of 5.9 nT and a minimum Bz of -5 nT. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to register moderate disturbances later on July 13 and July 14 with anticipated high speed stream arrival related to a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on July 10.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and locally mostly quiet with a couple of hours with unsettled periods registered over Belgium. Quiet to active conditions are anticipated for late July 13 and July 14 with possible isolated minor storms due to anticipated high speed stream arrival.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 192, за даними 10 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 12 Jul 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	235
Сонячний потік 10 см	210
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	007
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	006
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	172 - За даними 13 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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