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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Nov 09 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
09 Nov 2024	235	013
10 Nov 2024	231	014
11 Nov 2024	227	011

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C7.4 flare (SIDC Flare 2561) peaking on November 09 at 00:08 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Regions 3859, 3889). A total of 7 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3883) and SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3889) are the most magnetically complex active region (beta-gamma-delta) on disk and produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA Active Region 3878) has started to rotate over the west limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at high levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a chance for an X-class flare.

Корональні викиди маси

A Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) has been detected in the SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 15:36 UTC on November 08. Analysis of the CME is ongoing.

Корональні діри

A negative polarity high-latitude coronal hole continues to transition the central meridian in the northern hemisphere. A positive polarity low latitude coronal hole has started to transition the central meridian. A high-speed stream associated with this coronal hole is expected to impact the earth on November 12.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were under the influence of an ICME and possible influence of a high-speed stream. The interplanetary magnetic field B, reached a maximum value of 17 nT with a minimum Bz of -13 nT. The solar wind velocity varied between 344 km/s to around 447 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) until switching over to the positive sector around 08:36 UTC on November 09. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced over the next 24 hours.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active conditions locally and globally (K BEL 4 and Kp 4). Minor storm geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 177, за даними 03 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 08 Nov 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	231
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	012
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	012
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	201 - За даними 11 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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