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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Nov 10 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
10 Nov 2024	211	013
11 Nov 2024	205	019
12 Nov 2024	200	013

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 2 M-class flares identified The largest flare was a M4.2 flare (SIDC Flare 2570) peaking on November 10 at 00:15 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Regions 3859, 3889). A total of 7 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3883) and SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3889) are the most magnetically complex active region (beta-gamma-delta) on disk and produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 303 (NOAA Active Region 3881) and SIDC Sunspot Group 302 (NOAA Active Region 3879) have started to rotate over the west limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at high levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a small chance for an X-class flare.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. Further analysis of the CME detected in the SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 15:36 UTC on November 08, shows no impact at Earth is expected.

Корональні діри

A positive polarity low latitude coronal hole is continuing to transition the central meridian. A high-speed stream associated with this coronal hole is expected to impact the earth on November 12.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were under the influence of an ICME and possible influence of a high-speed stream. The interplanetary magnetic field B, reached a maximum value of 13 nT with a minimum Bz of -11 nT. The solar wind velocity varied between 375 km/s to around 418 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) until switching over to the negative sector around 03:30 UTC on November 10. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced over the next 24 hours.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached minor storm levels locally and globally (K BEL 5 and Kp 5). Minor geomagnetic storm conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 169, за даними 05 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 09 Nov 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	221
AK Chambon La Forêt	044
AK Wingst	028
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	032
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	161 - За даними 08 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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