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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Nov 21 1236 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
21 Nov 2024	166	005
22 Nov 2024	169	014
23 Nov 2024	170	006

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a long duration M1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 2669) peaking on November 20 at 19:48 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 316 (NOAA Active Region 3897), which has now rotated over the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 298 and 318 (NOAA Active Regions 3901 and 3898, respectively) also produced C-class flares. These two regions along with SIDC Sunspot Group 317 (NOAA Active Region 3896) are the most complex regions on disk. A new region rotated over the south east solar limb and was numbered as SIDC Sunspot Group 249 (NOAA Active Region 3902). The remaining regions were quiet and stable. The solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible with a chance for X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

A filament eruption was observed in the south-east quadrant in SDO AIA 304 from around 01:00 UTC on November 21. A related narrow coronal mass ejection (CME) to the south-east was observed in LASCO-C2 data and is currently being analysed. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Корональні діри

SIDC Coronal Hole 80 (negative polarity) continued to cross the central meridian on November 20.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions predominantly reflected a slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 2 and 10nT, with a minimum Bz of -7 nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 360 km/s and 390 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle switched from being mostly in the positive sector to being mostly in the negative sector from 21:35 UTC November 20. The solar wind speed is expected to become slightly elevated over the next 24 hours due to the possible high-speed stream influence, associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 79, which began to cross the central meridian on November 18.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Generally quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with possible isolated active conditions due to any high-speed stream influence.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to continue to be below this threshold over the 24 hours.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 109, за даними 09 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 20 Nov 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	181
Сонячний потік 10 см	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	006
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	006
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	120 - За даними 20 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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