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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Nov 22 1238 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10 см потік	Ap
22 Nov 2024	169	011
23 Nov 2024	174	011
24 Nov 2024	180	009

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C9.0 flare (SIDC Flare 2676) peaking on November 22 at 03:44 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 298 (NOAA Active Regions 3901). Two new regions emerged in the western hemisphere, SIDC Sunspot Group 320 and 321 (NOAA Active Region 3903 and 3904, respectively). A large new region also rotated over the south-east solar limb and was numbered as SIDC Sunspot Group 322 (NOAA Active Region 3905), which also produced C-class flaring. The remaining regions were quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

A partial Halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) predominantly directed to the south-east was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from around 12:48 UTC November 21. This originated from a filament eruption, visible in SDO AIA 304 over the east limb from 11:36 UTC November 21. This CME is therefore not expected to be Earth directed. A second halo CME, predominantly directed to the north-west, was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from around 18:12 UTC November 21. This CME was associated with a region beyond the west limb and is therefore not expected to be Earth directed. However, an associated proton event was detected at Earth.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions predominantly reflected a slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 3 and 10nT, with a minimum Bz of -7 nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 360 km/s and 430 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle switched was mostly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind speed may become slightly elevated over the next 24 hours due to the possible high-speed stream influence, associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 79, which began to cross the central meridian on November 18.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Generally quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with possible isolated active conditions due to any high-speed stream influence.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux increased above the 10 pfu from 19:25 UTC November 21 and reached a maximum value of 125 pfu at 03:30 UTC November 22. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton is currently around 38 pfu and is expected to remain elevated for the next day, with further increases possible in response to further high energy flaring activity from the same region beyond the west limb.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 144, за даними 09 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 21 Nov 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	175
Сонячний потік 10 см	166
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	011
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	010
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	116 - За даними 12 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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