Перегляд архіву субота, 30 листопада 2024

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Nov 30 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
30 Nov 2024	208	011
01 Dec 2024	204	007
02 Dec 2024	200	005

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity was low but frequent over the past 24 hours, with about a dozen C-class flares identified. SIDC Sunspot Group 323 (NOAA Active Region [AR] 3906) produced half of the flaring activity, including the brightest flare, a C9 on 30 Nov at 09:06 UTC (SIDC flare 2763). SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3912) produced the second brightest flare, a C5 on Nov 30 at 06:00 UTC, while SIDC Sunspot Group 322 (NOAA AR 3905) produced three C-class flares during the past 24 hours. M-class flaring activity is still expected, either from SIDC Sunspot Group 323, 302, or 322 in the next 24 hours. A small chance of an X-class flare in the next 24 hours still exists.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. A partial CME observed by LASCO-C2/SOHO as launched on 29 Nov at 10:16 UTC appears to be a back-sided event and thus not geo-effective.

Сонячний вітер

During the past 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) conditions were affected by the arrival of a weak Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) on 29 Nov around 17:00 UTC that lasted until 30 Nov 05:30 UTC. As predicted the resulted disturbance was relatively minor. The SW speed increased from 350 to 430 km/s as a result of the arrival, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) raised from 4 to 12 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -10 and 10 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed away from the Sun until the arrival of the CME and then fluctuated between the two directions. The effects of the CME have now subsided and the SW conditions are expected to be in the slow SW regime in the next 24 hours.

Геомагнетизм

During the last 24 hours global geomagnetic conditions reached the minor storm level (NOAA Kp 5-) on 30 Nov from 00:00 to 03:00 UTC, while for the rest of the time they were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 3- to 1-). The local geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to active levels (K BEL 1 to 4) during the same period. Both global and local conditions are expected to drop to unsettled to quiet levels in the next 24 hours.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so. However, there is still a small chance of a proton even in the next 24 hours.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 124, за даними 15 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 29 Nov 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	220
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	008
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	007
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	161 - За даними 22 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

Весь час у UTC

<< На сторінку денного огляду